Impact of Merger and Census on Demography of Pakistan

The demographic information regarding provinces of Pakistan presented to general public is usually pretty off and in some cases do not even make any mathematical sense.  Subsequent to the merger of FATA with KP the demographic miscalculations in KP becomes more profound. For example some publications state that 18% of the population of KP is Hindko speaking, however, upon research not one recent empirical study was found where global Hindko speaking exceeds 3.7 million worldwide (rounded to 4 million) i.e. including Hindko speakers of Pakistani Kashmir, Punjab and other areas outside KP. If we impose that number on 30.5 million and 35.5 million we get 13% and 11%, respectively.  Even if we consider entire population of Hazara Division to be Hindko speaking then Hindko speakers would represent 15% of the merged province. It may, however, be noted that out of 7 districts of Hazara Division, only Abbottabad is overwhelmingly Hindko, while Ghazi Tehsil of Haripur District, and Ogai Tehsil of Mansehra District is Pashto speaking. Districts of Torghar and Battagram are also Pashto speaking, while Kohistan upper and lower have Kohistani as majority language.  

Keeping the above example in our analysis, it is ascertained that KP is the most homogenous province having 82% population being Pashto speaking, followed by Punjabi's in Punjab at 75%, 60-62% Sindhi's in Sindh and around 50% Balochi & Brahvi combined in Baluchistan. 

Finally, the interesting fact is that around 38 Pakistani districts have Pashto majority, followed by 21 Sindhi, 20 Punjabi, 19 Balochi,  13 Seraiki, 8 Urdu, 4 Potohari, 3 Brahvi and Hindko each, 2 Koistani and 1 Chitrali.

Sindhi and Muhajirs in Sindh (Census 2017)

Sindhi's and Muhajir's in Sindh (Census 2017)

Pakistan Census 2017 (Pashtun Population)

Below is the approximate Pashtun population of Pakistan. The population of FATA has been grossly understated in Census 2017 (IDPs during operation in South Waziristan exceeded 1.5 million). According to my calculation the population of FATA has to be around 8-10 million. Furthermore, the percentage in my estimation of Pashtuns in non-Pashtun areas has also been very conservative, however, i am of the opinion that the below numbers give us some idea of the population of Pashtuns in Pakistan.

I have come across many studies that puts Pashtun population solely in Karachi at around 7 million. Furthermore, in case of Punjab, there is Pashtun indigenous population in Attock and Mianwali district, in addition to the migration of Pashtuns to major cities of Punjab due to economic reasons. Finally, war on terror has pushed many pashtuns to Sindh and Punjab which has to be considered. 

Pashtuns In KPK (Census 2017)

Even though many ethnic pashtun parties have stated that the pashtun numbers have been grossly understated, attached is the break down of pashtun population in KPK, as per 2017 census. 

Pashtuns in Baluchistan Census 2017

Sunnis in Iraq

One thing that I have noticed is that before an invasion American agencies that publishes statistics (e.g. CIA Fact Book) tend to skew the demographic numbers of the country that they are about to invade in USA favor. Case in point is Iraq, where Sunnis and Shias have been almost equal in number for at least last two centuries, however, by breaking the country between Arabs, Kurds and other groups, the Sunni population has been shown as just 31%!!. Recent pew survey shows that the population of Shias and Sunnis in Iraq as almost equal (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/18/the-sunni-shia-divide-where-they-live-what-they-believe-and-how-they-view-each-other/).

Furthermore, a very important factor that has to be considered is that the Baghdad holds around quarter of the population of Iraq and has always been a traditionally Sunni city. Among the seven largest cities, where the population is above 1 Million people, four are solidly Sunni (Mosul, Erbil, Kirkuk, Sulimaniya), while the Shia cities are Baghdad, Basra and Hillala.

Finally, It should be considered that the number of Sunnis in Baghdad have been somewhat under stated in the table below, however, if we agree with the argument that they have migrated out of Baghdad, it does not mean that they have left the country therefore, should be included in the total Sunni population of the Country.

Governorate	Population	Main Ethnicity	Sunni (%)	Shia (%)
Al Anbar	1,561,400	Arab	92	5
Babil	1,820,700	Arab	15	85
Baghdad	7,055,200	Arab	30	60
Basra	2,532,000	Arab	3	95
Dhi Qar	1,836,200	Arab	2	95
Al-Qādisiyyah	1,134,300	Arab	2	95
Diyala	1,443,200	Arab	65	25
Dohuk	1,128,700	Kurd	95	3
Erbil	1,612,700	Kurd	95	3
Halabja	337,000	Kurd	95	3
Karbala	1,066,600	Arab	1	95
Kirkuk	1,395,600	Arab/Kurd	95	2
Maysan	971,400	Arab	2	95
Muthanna	719,100	Arab	35	65
Najaf	1,285,500	Arab	2	80
Nineveh	3,270,400	Arab/Kurd	90	2
Saladin	1,408,200	Arab	95	2
Sulaymaniyah	1,878,800	Kurd	95	2
Wasit	1,210,600	Arab	20	80
Total	33,667,600		46.826985	47.81679

HAZARA PROVINCE